National chairman Jakaya Kikwete can rest easy, safe in the knowledge that the opposition’s failure to make headway with rural voters, coupled with CCM’s legacy as a force against colonialism in Africa, will keep his party in power post-2015. PHOTO | FILE
The Citizen Reporter
Dar es Salaam. The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) can rest assured of remaining in power for the foreseeable future, thanks to rural voters who comprise 80 per cent of the population, according to a study released recently.
Why CCM Won’t Lose: The Roots of Single-Party Dominance in Tanzania, a report authored by Prof Melanie O’Gorman of the Department of Economics at the University of Winnipeg in Canada, reckons that the party’s rural base will keep it comfortably in power for many years to come.
The survey lists four main reasons why CCM is the party of choice in the villages – it performed well during the single-party system (24.1 per cent), it is the only strong party (18.6 per cent), it has been good at maintaining peace (18.2 per cent) and it championed independence (8.4 per cent).
The findings are based on a study conducted with the assistance of the Morogoro-based Sokoine University of Agriculture in seven regions--Mtwara, Iringa, Kilimanjaro, Tanga, Morogoro, Mwanza and Shinyanga. Two hundred and eighty six farmers were interviewed.
It would appear that opposition parties hoping to trounce CCM must brace themselves for a long wait for the warm feelings for the independence party to fade and for a strong and credible challenge to emerge.
According to the study, CCM remains invincible mainly due to the absence of a strong opposition that can penetrate rural constituencies with alternative messages.
There are no strong farmers’ associations that could serve as sensitisation platforms and there is limited access to newspapers and radio services in areas that would traditionally vote CCM.
The report adds: “The results of this empirical analysis suggest that while many rural Tanzanians are indeed shouldering the burden of economic reforms, such a burden is not straining their loyalty to the party enacting the reforms.
A lack of a strong alternative among the political parties seems to be a prime reason for this loyalty, as does a sense of nostalgia for the party which brought them independence and which has maintained relative peace.”
According to CCM National Secretary-General Abdulrahman Kinana, the findings reflect the reality that CCM is the only party that reaches the majority of Tanzanians and responds to their aspirations.
On the paradox of the party neglecting its base--rural farmers--Mr Kinana admits that the government did not perform well in that area.
The distribution of subsidised fertiliser was marred by corruption, he added, and extension services and marketing of produce did not go well.
Mr Kinana blamed CCM, not the voters, for the beating it received from the opposition in 2010 election in Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Mbeya, Iringa and Lindi.
He added: “We had problems in the nomination of candidates. We ended up with wrong candidates due to corruption, nepotism and other malpractices. We have learnt our lesson. Next time, we are going to field the people’s choice and the outcome will be stunning.”
The Civic United Front deputy secretary-general in the mainland, Mr Julius Mtatiro, dismissed the findings as out-of-date and said they contradicted the actual position on the ground.
The punches CCM suffered in the 2010 general election were the real indicators that the independence party was in trouble, he said, and the gains made by the opposition would extend to the rural areas in 2015.
He added: “I warn CCM not to celebrate this report. If we get a good constitution and really independent electoral commission before 2015, they (CCM) should start packing.”
NCCR-Mageuzi National Chairman James Mbatia said the CCM strengths highlighted in the study were minor and the survey had not touched on the major issues that would continue to hand CCM victory in elections.
The real strength of CCM, he said, lay in the Elections Act of 1985 and the entrenchment of the party in the public administration system.
The current chairman of the Tanzania Centre for Democracy said that during elections, returning officers at district level are district executive officers (DEDs) who are civil servants.
“But DEDs report to the district commissioners (DCs) who are presidential appointees and CCM cadres,” he added. “How do you expect an election to be free, fair and transparent under such circumstances?”
Mr Mbatia, who is also a nominated MP, claimed that, thanks to the powers of DCs, opposition parties lose elections even before they are held since CCM has advance information on behind-the-scene plans and activities of opposition parties.
He added that, as chair of the defence and security committee in the district, the DC is also the boss to whom all security organs in the district report, including the police Officer Commanding District.
“Under the pretext of defence and security, the DC who is a CCM cadre has the privilege of gathering intelligence on the plans and activities of opposition parties in advance which he/she presents to CCM for counteraction,” he charged.
“CCM is not a political party like any other,” Mr Mbatia said. “It is practically a state party and, for the sake of democracy in this country, our focus should be on uprooting its entrenchment within state organs.”
Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) secretary-general Dr Willibrod Slaa said he would respond after reading the report
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